MVP validation toolkit
Collect data on how potential customers behave — landing page requests, conversion by channel, interview answers — and get a reasoned decision: continue, change course or stop. Thresholds are set before the experiment; conclusions follow published rules.
Free, no sign-up
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How it works
Hypotheses and thresholds — before the experiment
“We believe that… We will know we are right when…” + a metric, a success threshold, a failure threshold and a minimum sample. Once started, thresholds are locked; changing them requires an explanation that goes into the report.
Landing page and UTM links
A simple page with a request form — an HTML file you host yourself; requests go to your form endpoint or email. UTM links with spelling checks show which channel each person came from.
Funnel and interviews
Numbers by channel and stage: visits → clicks → requests → interviews → payments (stages are editable). Interviews: segment, pain 1–5, current workaround, willingness to pay, quotes, tags.
Report and decision
For each hypothesis — the observed value, a 95% interval and a verdict with a rule ID; the overall decision — continue, change course, stop or gather more data — with reasons and caveats.
Method and rules
The tables are generated from the same code as the calculation — rules v1.0 (13.10.2026). A share is x/n: for the funnel, n is the count at the “from” stage and x at the “to” stage; for interviews, n is everyone who answered the question.
The confidence interval is the 95% Wilson score interval (z = 1.96) without continuity correction. Unlike “±2 standard errors”, it stays within 0–100% and widens honestly on small samples: 0 out of 10 gives 0–27.8%, 5 out of 10 gives 23.7–76.3%.
MV-H00
- Verdict
- Not enough data
- When
- The metric cannot be computed: not selected, a stage or channel was removed, the data are inconsistent, or the thresholds are invalid.
MV-H01
- Verdict
- Not enough data
- When
- The sample (the share's denominator) is below the pre-registered minimum.
MV-H02
- Verdict
- Supported
- When
- The lower bound of the 95% Wilson interval ≥ the success threshold.
MV-H03
- Verdict
- Refuted
- When
- The upper bound of the 95% interval < the failure threshold.
MV-H04
- Verdict
- Not enough data
- When
- The interval spans both thresholds (lower < failure, upper ≥ success): the data cannot yet tell success from failure.
MV-H05
- Verdict
- Borderline
- When
- All other cases: the interval sits in the grey zone between thresholds or touches only one of them.
MV-D01
- Decision
- Stop
- When
- A problem hypothesis is refuted and no value or willingness-to-pay hypothesis is supported.
MV-D02
- Decision
- Change course (pivot)
- When
- At least one hypothesis is refuted (other than MV-D01): change what was refuted — segment, value, price or channel.
MV-D03
- Decision
- Continue
- When
- Nothing is refuted, and every problem, value and willingness-to-pay hypothesis is supported (at least one exists).
MV-D04
- Decision
- Gather more data
- When
- All other cases: key hypotheses are borderline or lack data.
MV-D05
- Decision
- caveat
- When
- Thresholds were changed after the experiment started — the report shows what and why; trust the conclusion less.
MV-D06
- Decision
- caveat
- When
- A hypothesis is past its deadline without enough data — decide whether to extend the experiment or change how you test it.
- F-01 “small sample”: a funnel step has fewer than 30 observations or fewer than 5 “successes” or “failures” — the interval is wide.
- F-02: a stage exceeds the previous one — most likely an input error; that share is not computed.
- F-03 channel comparison: if the best and worst channels' intervals overlap, the difference may be due to chance; if not, it is unlikely to be chance (a cautious check, not a formal test).
- Landing page: a headline, button text, a contact field label and an endpoint (https:// only) or a valid email are required; 3–5 benefits work best; a privacy line is recommended.
U-01
- Level
- error
- Rule
- The page address is a full URL with http:// or https://.
U-02
- Level
- warning
- Rule
- The address uses http:// — prefer https://.
U-03
- Level
- error
- Rule
- utm_source, utm_medium and utm_campaign are required.
U-04
- Level
- warning
- Rule
- Uppercase letters: analytics tools are case-sensitive, “Instagram” and “instagram” are different sources.
U-05
- Level
- warning
- Rule
- Spaces in values — replace them with _ or -.
U-06
- Level
- hint
- Rule
- Characters other than a–z, 0–9, dot, _ and - get percent-encoded — reports become harder to read.
U-07
- Level
- warning
- Rule
- The address already has utm tags — they will be replaced.
U-08
- Level
- warning
- Rule
- The same value is written differently (case or separators) across rows.
U-09
- Level
- hint
- Rule
- Values mix the _ and - separators.
U-10
- Level
- warning
- Rule
- Two rows produce the same link — they cannot be told apart in reports.
Limitations
- The tool itself does not publish, host or send anything. The landing page is a file you host yourself; requests are collected by your form service or email.
- Funnel numbers are entered by hand from your analytics: the tool does not connect to ad accounts or counters.
- The intervals do not account for systematic errors: an unrepresentative sample, leading questions, bots and repeat visits.
- Saying “I would pay” is a weak signal; a prepayment or pre-order is stronger. That is why the funnel can extend to payment.
- The rule-based decision supports a discussion; it is not a verdict: the final call belongs to a person who knows the context.
Privacy
- Everything is computed in your browser: computing never sends hypotheses, numbers, interviews or quotes to a server or puts them in the page address.
- Data and versions are stored only in this browser's localStorage; “Clear all” deletes them. Exports are files: a Markdown or PDF report, JSON, landing page HTML, a CSV of links.
- The landing page preview runs in a sandbox without scripts: the preview form does not submit anywhere.
- Analytics receives only the fact of a report or export with the decision or format category — none of your data.
- The result reaches us only if you send a request yourself and keep the “Attach the result” box ticked — the form shows exactly what will be sent: the decision, hypotheses with verdicts and intervals, funnel totals and interview aggregates. Quotes, notes and individual interview records, the landing page and UTM links are never included.
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